Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.050849 3.277296 3.531065 3.840932 4.215646 4.663620 5.255949
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.752885 3.041943 3.387916 3.846169 4.461785 5.305632 6.658333
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.562676 2.880613 3.277121 3.831638 4.635911 5.869232 8.258572
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.397241 2.723352 3.140755 3.745815 4.671902 6.220169 9.785679
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.326468 2.675468 3.135998 3.833439 4.977751 7.141007 13.912169
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.202982 2.546667 3.006183 3.715752 4.918264 7.337773 16.568258
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.093902 2.429258 2.881742 3.590091 4.818962 7.411531 19.257280
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.017846 2.351446 2.806711 3.531891 4.828781 7.748002 25.983991
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.992329 2.340278 2.825007 3.622360 5.134493 9.038741 125.001825
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.984419 2.352198 2.876865 3.773649 5.605592 11.401966 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.944087 2.315601 2.852459 3.789904 5.790538 13.076423 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.909408 2.285038 2.834725 3.815286 6.005393 15.454124 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.833141 2.193253 2.719899 3.658347 5.749490 14.686626 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.796625 2.157990 2.692064 3.661190 5.909264 17.354251 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.759675 2.120299 2.657862 3.648059 6.025273 20.479644 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.712378 2.065494 2.593380 3.570711 5.945121 21.423020 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.699415 2.060698 2.608638 3.649678 6.342303 34.659583 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.651984 2.002760 2.534456 3.543569 6.146776 32.834036 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.605298 1.944801 2.458422 3.429849 5.914367 29.444183 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.572445 1.906740 2.413749 3.377033 5.868601 32.077377 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.566531 1.908782 2.434832 3.459094 6.280332 87.424894 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.569776 1.924631 2.479556 3.595818 6.958971 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.552123 1.907816 2.468023 3.610471 7.193425 NaN NaN